Why India and China are Likely to Escape the Recession

India and China are Likely to Escape the Recession: UN Report

By
Akhila Masapogu,04-Apr-2020
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The fear of recession is intensifying with anticipation loss of trillions of dollars of the global economy due to the pandemic outbreak of COVID-19. But, there seems to be a relief for India and China because of the recent report of the UN which predicted the exception of these two nations from the global crisis.

The pandemic has specially posed a severe threat to the economy of the developing countries that account for two-thirds of the world’s population. The UN called for a whopping USD 2.5 trillion rescue package for these nations.

The UN trade and development body in the recent UN conference addressed COVID-19 as a Shock to Developing Countries. Especially the exporting countries with rich commodities will witness a plunge in investments of USD 2 trillion to USD 3 trillion from overseas in the next two years.

The UN report, however, did not discuss in detail how India and China are excepted to escape the recession even though the other developing nations are going to suffer a recession and financial crisis.

However, the worsening global conditions may lead to more stringent fiscal policies and foreign exchange policies throughout the upcoming year.

UNCTAD predicts that the developing countries may face.a 2 trillion to 3 trillion USD gap in the financial sector over the next two years.

UNCTAD also pointed out the intensity and the impact of the pandemic spread out which is far more dramatic than the 2008 global recession in comparison. Following the Pandemic the growth forecasts of the major economies of the world are revised.

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source: The Economist Intelligence Unit

UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi said that the economic crisis is unpredictable but it clearly indicates that the things for the developing economies will get worse before getting better.

The report also mentioned the economic slowdown in developing countries since the coronavirus breakout in China. Developing countries’ capital outflow decreased, the currency depreciated, trading decreased, commodity prices crashed and lost revenue from tourism.

Lack of the monetary, fiscal and administrative capacity to respond to a crisis the developing countries are experiencing an economic downturn. The combined impact of the health pandemic and a global recession might have cascading effects across sectors in the developing countries and stun the economic growth disturbing the production and manufacturing industries as well.

Even though the developing countries are facing the challenges of dealing with a growing unorganized workforce, this is a common problem of developing countries most times which is amplified during crises. Meanwhile, the advanced countries are pledging to do whatever it takes to make sure firms and households are not taking the heavy loss of income.

Amongst the chaos and lockdown in India news of the USA’s consideration of India to start their companies which are currently in China are getting viral. The current situation can be a blessing in disguise to India if the news turns out to be true. But discussions on this matter are only going to settle after the elections in the USA.

Meanwhile, as of 4th April, the number of affected cases due to COVID-19 worldwide has crossed 1 million, and deaths crossed 60000. The USA reported the highest number of affected cases, Italy still tolled the highest number of deaths and Spain followed Italy in the count. In India, the number of affected people crossed 3000 and the deaths accounted for 86 to date.

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